Feel Alive With These Five! – Saturday 10 October

He’s a very short favourite but I can see why. He won the Group 2 Chelmsford over 1600m two starts ago, has strong form around this distance range, and gets Nash Rawiller again. The Hill Stakes is 1900m at Rosehill, with Lindermann drawn 8 at 59kg. 

The horse I’d be most wary of is Eliyass. His last-start fourth in the Group 2 Kingston Town over 2000m is a useful lead-in, and from barrier 4 he should get a more economical run than Lindermann, so he’s much more interesting from a value perspective.

Rating 6 out of 10

I’m going with Sheza Alibi to win the Group 1 Might And Power Stakes.

She’s currently about $1.35, with Birdman $3.70, Treasurethe Moment $12 and Kingswood $14. Sheza Alibi comes in off excellent form, and receives weight from the older males at 56kg. The one genuine question is 2000m — she’s attempting the distance for the first time. Her camp specifically sees Saturday as the test of whether she handles it, while Chris Waller believes the extra trip gives Birdman a chance of finding a weakness.

Rating 6 out of 10

She has the strongest staying form in this field. Most importantly, she was beaten only a head in the Group 3 Colin Stephen Quality over this exact 2400m trip at Rosehill last start, after previously finishing only 2.75 lengths away in the G3 Newcastle Cup over 2300m. That’s stronger recent form than most of Saturday’s opposition.

The market agrees but hasn’t completely crushed her price yet. 

The one I think can upset her is Diamond Show. She’s in strong form, has won twice this campaign and is 3-from-3 for placings at Eagle Farm. She’s around $6.50, so I’d regard her as the more interesting value runner. 

Rating 6 out of 10

This one appeals to me more than a few of the short-priced favourites I’ve tipped up this weekend. Fukubana was beaten only a neck in the Lismore Cup carrying 62kg last start, having won over this exact Eagle Farm 1400m course and distance the start before. He drops to 58.5kg, draws nicely in barrier 4, and should get a much more economical run than he did at Lismore.

The early market has him favourite at about $3.50–$3.80.

Esjay is the danger for me. His Eagle Farm record is excellent — 3 wins and another 3 placings from 7 starts — and his first-up fifth in the Weetwood was better than the bare result suggests. But he’s carrying 60kg, versus Fukubana’s 58.5kg.

Rating 7 out of 10

She has a really strong sprint profile: three consecutive wins last preparation, including the Listed Supremacy Stakes over 1000m and the G3 Gimcrack over 1100m, before finishing third behind Afireofgidgeecoals in the G2 Karrakatta Plate. She’s also 2-from-2 at 1000m, and a recent 1000m trial should have her ready first-up.

The market has also come strongly for her: $3.80 → $3.10 favourite, while Afireofgidgeecoals has eased from $3.90 to $4.60. Aurum Belle gets 56kg compared with his 59kg, which swings the weights from their Karrakatta meeting. 

Rating 6 out of 10