Brisbane Lions v Melbourne Preview, Gabba

The Lions fired a massive warning shot to the rest of the competition with their demolition of
Port Adelaide for a third-straight win. Not only is there a prediction of finals, top-four is not
out of contention. Young gun Will Ashcroft is set to return for his first match in almost a year
after recovering from a knee injury. Brisbane accounted for the Demons at the MCG earlier
in the season, and will fancy their chances on Friday night. Melbourne’s form has been
concerning, just hanging on to defeat North Melbourne. Christian Petracca is out for the rest
of the season, but the Demons will regain defender Jake Lever to partner with Steven May.

Brisbane and Melbourne have delivered some memorable contests in recent seasons, and any new AFL Betting Tips should consider that history. The Lions boast a strong head‑to‑head record, winning four of the past five meetings including a close five‑point triumph at the Gabba last season. Meanwhile, Melbourne stunned Brisbane with an 11‑point upset in Round 10 of 2025, roaring home with a dominant final quarter to snatch victory.

Current form shows Brisbane more reliable through the midfield and strong in clearances, often grinding out wins even after slow starts. Melbourne have struggled with consistency this year, though key players like Clayton Oliver remain dangerous through the centre. When shaping AFL Tips, value seems to lie in markets like clearances, disposal counts and low-scoring lines their recent eight games for Brisbane fell under total points on the board.

As an AFL Prediction, leaning on Brisbane to control the contest at the Gabba feels sensible. They have home‑ground advantage and a superior midfield structure. But Melbourne’s late‑game pressure mustn’t be over looked they forced the draw with North Melbourne after trailing significantly. So any AFL Betting Tips might look to Brisbane ML, disposal props for Dunkley or Neale, or the under on total points. In short: tight, contested and low scoring exactly the kind of game where smart AFL Prediction thinking can deliver.

TIP: Brisbane Lions by 23 points, Lachie Neale for 25 or more possessions