Racing Tips: Flemington 1/11/2025

R3-5 best of the day

R5-1 best value play

R6-3

R9-2

R1 – #7 Kilman (1 win unit)

R2 – #9 Teine Aulelei (1.5 win units)

R3 – #5 Caballus (3 win units)

R4 – No Bet

R5 – #1 Steparty (1.5 win units)

R6 – #3 Tentyris (2 win units)

R7 – #9 O’sheamus (1.5 win units) #17 Arabian Prince (0.5 win unit)

R8 – #4 Damask Rose (1.5 win units)

R9 – #2 Arabian Summer (2 win units)

TOTAL INVESTMENT – 14.5 units

R1– Derby Day kicks off as usual with the Carbine Club Stakes a 3yo, 1600M race from where many a top-class galloper has emerged. This year’s edition seems a tad weaker than previously and for that reason I’ve gone looking a little wider.

My top selection is the Waller trained Kilman, this colt hasn’t had much luck this time in, and im aware that the stable has a decent opinion of him. After kicking off this prep in Brissy, he then moved to the Sydney stables for 2 runs where hasn’t been overly tested for several reasons. I love the fact that he has energy reserves off his last run, they want to throw him in at the deep end, he draws nicely to sit one off the fence, Hippo is riding well, and at the $26 he is worth a small ticket.

Another ex-Queenslander Call Da Vinci might be a surprise packet, he boasts a nice record from up north, was excellent at his first Melbourne run behind Bacash, and he is a 2^nd up winner.

Vinrock is the class runner who drops in grade here, he draws well, gets Zahra and he will be thereabouts. Two slight concerns are, he has never run a place in 2 runs at 1600M, and this is his 5^th run this prep.

Regal Award is the rightful favourite off its recent victory; he did get plenty of favours that day and mightn’t get it all his way here. The $2.30 currently on offer is half what I have him marked.

Backing #7 Kilman (1 win unit)

R2- Teine Aulelei means “beautiful girl” in Samoan. It is a term of endearment used to describe a young woman who possesses both physical attractiveness and inner qualities like grace and inner strength. This lovely filly is perfectly suits that moniker and going by her most recent runs she will live up to her name. Last start at Moonee Valley she was caught up back on the fence and didn’t get any luck when need. Whilst she draws the outside barrier here, I think Ben Melham will take his medicine and settle back in the last couple. That mightn’t be too disadvantageous as there appears to be very good speed in the race. Watch for her to be flashing home late.

Sheza Alibi is the danger; she was excellent first up behind Tentyris (who will be hard to beat in the Coolmore later in the day), drops in grade, returns to her own sex, draws perfectly, and won its only start when 2^nd up. One of these two should win.

Icarian Dream is ready to peak now after 3 runs back from a spell and is a chance, as is Live who is beautifully bred, and her two runs have both had good merit.

Backing #9 Teine Aulelei (1.5 win units)

R3- The fillies’ version of the previous race and this lot has many looking to head to the Oaks in Cup week. I have narrowed it down to 3 main hopes and will have 2 small plays on those out of the market.

The first of those is Just Kick, the slow pace was severely against it last start and its closing couple of sectionals were very good. The additional 400M suits perfectly here and I think we should get $10+.

My other horse I’m looking to paly is Future Frankie from the Mark Walker stable. If there is a horse bred for a staying trip, then it’s this girl. She is by the global superstar Frankel out of a Japanese mare in Mirai E, she is a sister to their fabulous sire Tosen Stardom. Her first start at Cranbourne reeked of her nee

R3- Our best bet of the meeting is the Sydney visitor Caballus. This fella has returned in great shape after a let up, with 2 nice trials and a super effort in the Sydney Stakes behind the proven group performer Rothfire. That day he was wide all the way from an outside barrier and had the audacity to still be strong late in the race to only be beaten a smidge over a length, a favourable barrier and he probably wins. He drops 1.5kgs into this, is drawn to have a few options, has won 2 from 3 when 2^nd up, and finds a moderate standard for a Group Three race.

Geegees Mistruth arrived in Melbourne with excellent Tasmanian form, and her recent efforts have shown that she is up to pinching a good class of race. The most recent run behind Rey Magnerio was very good, she was unlucky not to win. She gets a nice wide draw, Craig Williams to steer, and goes well 3^rd up.

Libertad is ready to improve after its first run back from a break and has good 2^nd up credentials.

Star Patrol is a specialist at the track/trip and can’t be dismissed.

Backing #5 Caballus (3 win units)

ding more ground, an extra 400M is perfect at this stage. She draws for a soft run and will be here at the finish.

The fave Just A Journey is the one they need to beat, she is racing well in Sydney and will target the Oaks also, Shinn will give her every chance especially if he’s allowed to dictate terms in front.  The $2.40 is a tad skinny for my liking, in saying that if the track is favouring leaders, then she will shorten off that quote.

After Summer is beautifully bred, draws to get a cosy run, and its win last start had good merit.

Backing #6 Just Kick (0.5 win unit) and #12 Future Frankie (0.5 win unit)

R4- Getta Good Feeling is the one they all need to beat here with most heading to the Oaks next Thursday. Her most recent run was an eyecatcher and off that should be far too good for this lot, The $1.60 isn’t my go, we might have to get inventive to have a bet.

Fashionable is another of many runners on the day visiting from Sydney, she is one who will run the trip right out being by Savabeel. Her racing pattern and the step up in trip all look to be in her favour.

Prestige Snitzel improved last Saturday as I thought it would, if she takes the next step then she will be a player somewhere around the placings. She is by Snitzel so the trip might be at her outer limits.

Ethereum Girl draws to get a soft run, and all indications are that she is looking for 2000M now, she is a hope for a minor prize.

No Bet

R5- My best value play of the day presents here with Steparty. In a very open race this gelding has plenty of attributes to suggest a very forward showing. He is a multiple winner at both the track and the distance and has had 2 starts at the Flemington 1400M for a win and 3^rd. Most recently he was excellent from back in the field when charging home behind Private Eye in a race not run to suit him. His closing sectionals supported that a win is very close. At $15 I am hoping that it is here.

King Zephyr is lightly raced and is going well, this race is set up for his racing style. He draws well, Jordan Childs has a great affinity with his and he is a winner at his only attempt at this track/trip.

Zou Sensation is racing in the peak from of its career and is a chance. Other notables are Payline, Media World, Ndola and Mighty Ulysses who is better than an $81 chance.

Backing #1 Steparty (1.5 win units)

R6- The first of our 3 Group One races, and the Godolphin colt Tentyris is one of the better bets on the card. This colt could not have been any more impressive when winning last start, his strength and acceleration over the last 150M was that of an outstanding horse. I think he wins this and stamps himself as one of the country’s premier sprinters. It is worth noting that he has performed well down the straight previously, this will also hold him in great stead here.

Skyglider is a query runner, from only 2 undefeated starts he has made everyone sit up and take notice. He is on a 7-day backup here, very unlike the Waller regime, that says they are confident that they can throw him in the deep end, and he will acquit himself well. This is a steep class rise so it is very interesting how he handles it.

Beiwacht is another Godolphin colt in great form, whilst he has an undeniable chance my slight concern is that his target was the Golden Rose where he made a mess of them. If Waller can get him to peak again then he will provide stiff opposition.

Beadman is another smart conveyance, he is a live chance, I have a doubt whether those he has beaten are anywhere near the class of the two Godolphin runners.

Backing #3 Tentyris (2 win units)

R7- The race of the day, the time-honoured Victorian Derby, a race that was first run and won in 1855, few races on our calendar have such a long history.

This year I like the lightly raced son of Shamus Award in O’sheamus. This fella has continued to improve as the distances have lengthened and the step out to 2500M sits perfectly for him. His run last Saturday was the perfect set up in preparation for this and I can see him tuning the tables on the hot favourite. I’d rather take $15 about him than $2.10 about the fave.

Observer is the obvious danger, his effort when winning last Saturday was as arrogant as it gets. That’s said he was given plenty of favours when leading off a very moderate tempo on a track that favoured him. There are some concerns about the extra trip and his brilliance, all in all he is a very good horse, and his class will take him a long way.

The first emergency Arabian Prince is a horse I earmarked a month ago for this race, he will need luck to get a run but if he sneaks into the field lookout for him to be finishing hard late.

Providence, Azazel and Options are others with claims in what should be a very exciting race.

Backing #9 O’sheamus (1.5 win units) #17 Arabian Prince (0.5 win unit)

R8- The last of the trio of group races and what a competitive field of mares they have put together.

I’ve settled on the Mark Walker trained Damask Rose. This race was earmarked months ago as this girls target and I am keen to follow that plan with them. Her last 3 runs have set her up beautifully for this, and with the POJ speed from the top I see her flying home over the top of them in the last 100M. She has energy reserves from her Toorak run when she couldn’t get fully tested and Shinn will give her every hope.

Waller has a strong hand with Leica Lucy and Fangirl, I prefer Leica Lucy slightly over her much-lauded stablemate. Leica Lucy has produced two nice efforts since returning from a spell, and its set up has a sense of timing about it, something the stable are masters at.

Her running mate Fangirl is a bonny mare, evidenced by being a winner of more than $10M in prizemoney. She is getting on in years and I’m not sure she appreciates a madly run race which could be the case here. She is way too good to dismiss though.

Benagil is another classy horse who could be the surprise packet, the $26 on offer is double what I have her marked.

Backing #4 Damask Rose (1.5 win units)

R9- We close out an excellent day’s racing with a nice sprint race for mares.

I like the McEvoy trained Arabian Summer to close it out on a winning note for us. This girl finds the easiest race she has contested this prep, is a winner 4^th up, Shinn goes on which is big plus, draws conveniently to give him options and the $5.50 looks a great price.

Stretan Angel retuned to form last start, and a repeat will have her in the finish. She has raced well previously at the track/trip, and the barrier may be a blessing for her to come wide late in the day.

Photograph is a handy horse who can surprise at big odds, she is another that will appreciate being drawn wide and coming down the outside late.

Soft Love was excellent when resuming and should be thereabouts, she is lightly raced and has good scope for improvement.

Backing #2 Arabian Summer (2 win units)

R1-7v,4 danger,1,5

R2-9x,4….1,5

R3-5xxx best/day,9,1,4

R4-1x too short,7,4,2

R5-1x great value,13,4,2,

R6-3xx,11 knockout,1,10

R7-9v,1,17…6,7,5

R8-4x,6,2,5

R9-2xx,5,15,13

Best of luck if you’re playing.

Recent performances at Caulfield have shown varied results, making it an exciting day for racing fans. Our latest Racing Tips highlight key trends from the track’s conditions.